Wednesday, October 7, 2009

I Love October, Playoff Baseball.....And Twins!

My pulse is going insane. Must be tie-breaker baseball!
(espn.com)

Brett Favre can't say he did this Monday.
(espn.com)

Ahh yes, the playoffs are finally here! What a game the Tigers - Twins was, huh? Just when I thought nothing could top the Rockies-Padres in '07, or the White Sox-Twins last year. These tie-breaker games have been more dramatic and entertaining than the World Series themselves. All considering that the World Series hasn't gone 7 games since 2002 and hasn't even gone six since 2003. Even O.C. said that it was the biggest game he ever played in, which made me think the Red Sox brass pulled an MIB and erased his memory before he left town after the '04 season. The game had it all. Clutch assists from the outfield, late-inning homers, an Orlando Cabrera curtain call, a controversial possible missed HBP on Inge and even a base hit call by Chip Caray on a line out to left field. Once a broadcaster makes a mistake like that, you know the game is intense. In the end, the Twins became the AL Central champs on a 12th inning single by Alexi Casilla producing a 5-4 win, making the Tigers the 1st team in history to blow a 3 game lead with 4 games left in the season (Feel better, Mets fans?), thus extending the life of Metrodome baseball for at least one more game. Tigers fans probably didn't expect that complete implosion, nor did they expect heart attack inducing closer Fernando Rodney to finish the last 3 innings of their season. In retrospect, this game was symbolic of the Tigers season, they got ahead early, but their lack of depth ended up running them over in the end despite resiliently fighting the fight. Now that the picture is finally set, let's talk some playoffs!


La Russa, how can you have staring contest with sun glasses?
(images.dailyradar.com)

Los Angeles Dodgers (95-67) vs. St Louis Cardinals (91-71)
Here we got a classic battle of two of the best managers of some of the classic franchises in the game. Each have managed two teams that have pretty much led their respective divisions for virtually the entire season, which may explain why these teams have limped in to the big show. On one side, we have a team from California, who dominated the first half of the season without a suspended dreadlocked slugger, but a wee bit of trouble closing it out as it took the final weekend of the season to seal up the NL West. To tell you the truth, I never took this team seriously, even when they were tearing it up in the early going. For one, where is their starting pitching? Chad Billingsley is solid overall, but a shaky few months (5.25 ERA since July), his hamstring and his lack of experience has me questioning if he has enough for a playoff run. Clayton Kershaw showed some promise this season, especially in Saturday's clincher against the Rockies. But that victory was his first in over 2 months. At least they have Game 1 starter and lefty Randy Wolf, who has arguably been their most solid pitcher the entire season, but will his stuff be enough to neutralize the right handed bats of Pujols and Holliday? And then there is Manny Ramirez, who was supposed to make the Dodgers far and away the best team in the majors, only he has hit a mediocre .269 with 13 homers since coming back from his 50 game vacation. As much as I love Ethier, Kemp and Loney, Manny is gonna have to be the straw that stirs this martini if the offense is going to help protect a pitching staff that has a few question marks heading into October. On the other end, we have a Cardinals team who have lost 7 of their last 9 before going into Game 1. The Cards no doubt bring the best back-to-back combo in the series with Holiday and Pujols, however the rest of the lineup isn't as intimidating. Even Pujols has hit in the low .200s against L.A. this year, so the offense isn't exactly a lock. Guys like Ludwick and Molina have to chip in if they are going to help their staff of studs. The Cards bring two potential Cy Young winning aces (Carpenter and Wainwright) in their deck, which will make the job of the L.A. offense a little more difficult. Add in Pineiro, and you arguably have the best trio of starters in the MLB. L.A. has home field, but I think the lights will be shut down early in Mannywood.

Prediction: Cardinals in 4 games. Carpenter and Wainwright will undoubtedly be the difference in this series as the Cardinals roll over Torre's Dodgers, as much as I can't stand La Russa. There will be no Torre return in the Bronx this October.

Guess who came to crash Rocktober?
(pictures.gi.zimbio.com)

Philadelphia Phillies (93-69) vs. Colorado Rockies (92-70)
A nice battle between the last two NL pennant winners. Just when you think the West was long conquered, the Rockies decide to embark on another episode of their Mile High Magic as they overcame a 5 game losing streak at the end of August against the Dodgers and Giants to almost capturing the Western throne at the beginning of this month. Just like their first Mile High moment in 2007, they will be facing the Phillies in the divisional series, who are in title defense mode. Game 1 is real intriguing with the starting matchup alone. The Rockies will start with under the radar talent Ubaldo Jimenez, who has the most electric stuff of anybody in this series, but like Letterman, occasionally falls victim to some wildness (too soon?). The Phillies will counter with Cliff Lee, who hit the ground running in Philly, but lately has just hit the ground with a 5.46 ERA since Sept. 4th. But with options like Hamels, J.A. Happ, Blanton and yes Pedro Martinez (5-1 since joining), I think Philly can trump starters like Aaron Cook, who somehow has been a favorite factor in this series due to his rested arm (2 starts since Aug. 21st. The rest didn't work in Game 4 of the 2007 World Series. Just saying.). Can't forget about Jason Marquis, who somehow won 15 games despite sporting a 5.64 ERA and winning only one decision since Aug. 24th. The fact that they have lost Jorge de la Rosa due to a balky groin doesn't exactly bolster their rotation either. The Phillies boast a lineup that would rival some of the AL teams. With firestarters like Rollins and Victorino combining forces with sluggers like Howard, Utley and IbaƱez, Cook and crew are not gonna have the easiest of times. The major question for the Phils is who is gonna close out their games? Brad Lidge and his 11 blown saves are a huge contrast from when he led the the best 'pen in baseball to a World Series title and a TV series on the MLB Network. But it looks like for now, Lidge is their only option, but expect Charlie Manuel to have a toothpick-sized leash on him. But then again, Huston Street's 9 runs allowed in his last 17 1/3 innings hasn't exactly been a bright spot in the back of Colorado's bullpen. The Phillies will have home-field in this series, however they probably won't be phased by the elevation of Coors Field due to their ownership of the best road record in baseball (48-33). In the end, I expect an LCS headlined by two of the most storied franchises in the National League.

Prediction:
Phillies in 4 due to their recent experience and their offense's ability to hit their overrated pitching, granted that Lidge doesn't spoil the show. Again, starting pitching is gonna make a huge difference in this series, and I don't see how Colorado has that advantage. This year, Rocktober will just be a month that ends early.


Twins fans, the info below is going to induce more sickness.
(espn.com)

New York Yankees (103-59) vs. Minnesota Twins (87-76)
The Twins come into this series as the Cinderella of 2009 by taking 17 out of the last 21 games, and as a result overtook the Tigers in Game 163 to win a date in the Bronx with the Yanks. They came through despite only having half of the Morneau-Mauer combo along with guys like Kubel, Cuddyer, Span and Punto. With all that said, if you are a Twins fan and squeamish, I would stop reading here. I truly know that what I'm going to say is going to make the title of this entry an oxymoron. Forget the showcasing of the Top 2 AL MVP candidates, this is going to be a bruising, a bloody mess, just pure carnage. You'll be lucky if even 10 Twins players walk out of the rubble. This is like that slaughterhouse scene in those documentaries that forces you not to eat another hot dog ever again. Hell, I don't think that there is a word in the English language that describes what's going to happen in this series. I realize that the Twins are going in with some psycho momentum right now, but they're going into a series against the best run-producing team in baseball armed with #3 starters at best. That 0-7 regular season mark doesn't exactly give me confidence, nor does the fact that the Twins haven't won in New York since Independence Day 2007. Also can't forget that the Twins just played an extra inning game while using pretty much everybody, including their all-star closer Joe Nathan. At least the Tigers had a shot with Verlander, who had a 2.88 ERA with 42 Ks in 40 2/3 innings against AL playoff teams this year, but his team screwed him out of a chance to prove himself in the big stage by not clinching over the weekend, followed by not being able to clinch at all. Just look at the Game 1 probables: Sabathia - Duensing. Enough said. In fact, I hope I spelled this kid's name right. I have Sabathia's 7.92 postseason ERA in mind, but I'm not sure that the 26 year old Duensing's 2.73 ERA in his 9 starts will put fear in the hungry bats of the Yanks, who are the 1st team in history to have 7 guys hit 20+ homers in a season. Nick Blackburn and Twins 'ace' Scott Baker will follow, who have combined for a 4.06 ERA since Sept. 5th, good but not great. And I don't expect Pavano to come through against the organization who will end up giving him the the most money he will ever 'earn' in his whole lifetime. The only thing I can see the Twins capitalizing on is the questionable Yankee starting pitching after Sabathia. Burnett has been mediocre since the break, and Pettitte has been battling shoulder issues, so maybe Twin sluggers like Cuddyer (hit a quiet 32 homers), Kubel and Mauer can capitalize. Also, the Twins bullpen ranks just ahead of the Yankees (4th place 3.87 to 5th place 3.91) in the AL. However, despite all of that, this series is gonna go as well for Minnesota as Walter Mondale's bid for president against Reagan, which if I can remember, Minnesota was the only state that picked him. Sorry, Yankee haters!

Prediction: Yankees in 3. I wanted to do 4, but I just wouldn't be honest with myself. This is almost as much of a mismatch as if I tried to fight Yokozuna in a wrestling match, with nun-chucks! Minnesota, at least you have Jack Morris in 1991!


This #34 will make a huge impact, and he won't even play.
(wight4256.mlblogs.com)

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim (97-65) vs. Boston Red Sox (95-67)
This will be a tough prediction for me, not only because of the personal emotion and value I will invest in this series, but this is by far the best divisional series matchup in terms of the history, equal talent and the storylines of the past. It's another one of those Angels teams that may not have that core hitter that everyone is afraid of (or maybe you haven't seen Kendry Morales), but they all can just hit. The Angels come in with a league-leading .285 team average and without an easy out in the lineup. Guys like Chone Figgins (OBP: .395) and Bobby Abreu (OBP: .390) are going to be a threat on the basepaths against a duo of catchers who have only thrown out 12.9 and 13.4 percent of baserunners on the season. Their starting pitching really has no true ace, but have the 4th best ERA with a 4.44 ERA with guys like Lackey, Weaver (who gives the Sox headaches), Saunders, and Kazmir, who may arguably be the biggest pickup of the season due to his success in Fenway (1.74 ERA with Angels since being acquired in late Aug.). The Red Sox have come in with question marks with their starting pitching as Clay Buchholz has allowed 13 ER and 6 bombs in his last 8 innings pitched. On top of that, we don't know which Beckett we are going to get, considering he has had a shaky 2nd half to go along a few back spasms that may hinder him from achieving the postseason success he has had in the past. I'm a big believer that wherever Beckett goes, so do the Red Sox. It was no coincidence that we didn't make it to the World Series last year in the midst of Beckett's oblique injury, as evidenced by his Game 2 start in the ALCS last year where he blew 3 leads in a eventual 9-8 Sox loss to the Rays in a series that would eventually go 7. It was also no coincidence that the Sox won the ultimate prize when Beckett was healthy for all of '07. The Sox have a huge bullpen advantage (3.80 - 4.49 ERA), but guys like Okajima, Ramirez and Delcarmen have been making the job interesting lately to say the least. Young Danny Bard has displayed dominant stuff this season, but is he too young to be setting up games in do-or-die situations in October? Although I do like the fact of having Brian Fuentes in a potentially important series thinking the Green Monster is gonna eat him up. The Sox offense has been electric since the trade deadline pickup of Victor Martinez, which has been followed up by the resurgence of Bay (16 HRs, 45 RBI since the pickup), Drew (.340 average since Aug 1st), and even shortstop defensive whiz Alex Gonzalez has gone .292 with 6 homers since being reacquired by his '06 team. This is truly the hardest series to pick, and I might need some Pepto to alleviate this feeling in my stomach now.

Prediction: Ouch, this is going to hurt..........Angels in 5. There, I said it, and it was just painful. Don't yank away my fan card for this. I realize that the Sox have won the last 12 out of 13 postseason games against the Angels dating back to 1986, but as all of us Red Sox fans know, history can change its course in an instant. The postseason is about pitching and I'm not sure if all the Sox arms are ready now. I can't ignore the Angels talent along with the divine advantage they get with Angel Nicky up in the heavens.


So there you have it. 3 out of the 4 teams I picked to win were also teams I can't stand in some way. Might need horse tranquilizer induced nap after writing this. I can't stop profusely sweating and my heart feels like its on the brink of exploding every second. Last night, I had a nightmare of Jered Weaver and Scott Kazmir sawing me up in a box like the magicians, but I actually felt tooth on that blade ripping through me as they laughed. God, I love the playoffs! Anything can happen. After all, Michael Crabtree just signed with he 49ers, so I'm looking over my shoulder for anything suspicious. Here's to me getting my AL picks dead-wrong. GO SOX!!!!!!!

Mochaman's Fantasy Football Report
- Boston Beersquad - 3-1 (4th, Plax's Got a Gun, 3rd in Division 2, 467.44 Pts.)
Another fine performance from Ronnie Brown and from team backup David Garrard to boost this team in a tight division race. I may have found my replacement if Kurt Warner doesn't shape up in a couple weeks. Might need a kicker, considering both of mine have a bye this week. Facing a 1-3 team, but the 2nd highest scoring team in the league, so I got my hands full this weekend.

- Killa' Beavaz - 2-2 (3rd, Yahoo Public 179914, 412.28 Pts.)
Just my luck in fantasy football! Lost to an 0-3 team by .76 points (you read it right). Finally have quit on Tennessee's D and put in New England, who have made strides the past 2 weeks. Didn't fall too far, considering I'm one of six 2-2 teams in the league right now, but need a good comeback performance from McNabb among others to start separating myself from the rest of the pack.

1 comment:

  1. You made the right move dropping the Tennessee defense...I don't believe they will improve significantly on the balance of season. McNabb should have a huge bounceback game against Tampa Bay this Sunday.

    ReplyDelete