Clay Buchholz: Deal Or No Deal?

I'll pick the trade suitcase, please!

(poptower.com)

As another trade deadline approaches, many fans wonder if their team will make the big splash that will hopefully energize their club to the postseason and all of its glory. Unless you live under Gibraltar, you know that ace pitcher Roy Halladay has been the most sought after prize in this year's trading sweepstakes, with some teams willing to give up their most-prized jewels in their farm systems. As intriguing as a Roy Halladay would be with staff anchored by a Jon Lester and a Josh Beckett, the Sox need to give these guys run support when they get out on the bump every 5th day. Averaging 2.8 runs a game since the All-Star break, Boston definitely needs a shot in the arm if they are going to continue their push for the AL East crown, and ultimately the World Series. Recently, Theo Epstein and Co. decided to acquire Pirates first baseman Adam Laroche, a player notorious for his stellar 2nd half showings and his mastering of pitch counts (.328 on-base percentage really isn't convincing). Unless this guy hits a homerun in all of his 4-8 at bats he will get per week, I don't see how this move will ultimately fix this anemic offense. To top that off, we're now paying Julio Lugo to hit homers for the Cardinals. Our offensive savior, Jason Bay, has barely been hitting his weight with a .212 clip over the past two months, and a .256 clip overall. His inability to hit anything other than a fastball has made me dub Bay as "the white Pedro Cerrano" every time he steps into the box. The $70 million dollar man and pitch count extraordinaire J.D. Drew is only batting .233, while helping Boston's leadoff spot plummet to one of the worst in the league in OBP and OPS (How's that for irony?). With our recent offensive plight affecting our road to October, there maybe only one controversial move that can fix the problem (.388 slugging and .233 average in the last 30 days. YIKES!). This may be blasphemy to some, but I would be entirely open to dealing our no-hit wunderkind Clay Buchholz in order to help this team get to the promised land.

You heard the man. Gotta' sell high!
(espn.com)

Now that I got that out of my system (and lightning didn't strike me), I will not only explain why we should pull the Buchholz trigger, but my prospect philosophy in general. To be honest it's not all that complex. I actually believe in building a strong farm system, because it can help an organization in two ways. One is that the minors can produce star players that the organization can have contractual control over, which is extremely beneficial to a club's finances. The other way a farm system can help a team is it could help position a team to make a move for proven commodities. The Red Sox farm system has been blessed with a pool of talent, as evident by the performances of Pedroia, Youkilis, and Lester to name a few. The impact has been so strong, that now it seems that Epstein doesn't want to part with any of his finest young talent. But other than that no-hitter on his 2nd start, what have we really gotten out of Clay in his time in the majors? He has been billed by many analysts as the best pitching prospect in the majors, but it has been a while now (He's 25 next month.), and he doesn't necessarily have a strong foothold on a rotation spot. In his 20 starts in the major leagues, he has recorded only 5 quality starts (last one was April 26th of last year), and only 2 of those starts went 7+ innings. Meanwhile, Braves prospect Tommy Hanson already has 4 quality starts in only 8 trips to the hill, and he started in June! Buchholz is 6-11 overall with a 5.40 ERA and a 1.60 WHIP, not exactly the ace he's predicted of becoming. Yet, Buchholz is still highly valued as a top prospect. So much so that Theo would rather pay two multi-millionaire shortstops to play for other teams than give up the right hander. But prospects are as sure of a thing as a fruitful career stemming from an American Idol victory. Remember Craig Hansen, the next closer of the Red Sox? Delmon Young and Andy Marte were sure things, too. Even hot starters like Jeff Francoeur and Fransisco Liriano have fallen flat on their faces lately. Sure you have contractual control as an organization, but how good is control if your prospect doesn't live up to the bill (which many don't)? For a failed prospect, contractual control has as much meaning as a high school superlative. Meanwhile, competing teams are strengthening through trade and free agency, while your "piece of sliced bread" loses value, and can only be traded for a bucket of balls and a rosin bag. Look at how the Oakland A's experiment has worked out. The Billy Beane A's have only won one playoff series in his tenure, touting some of the biggest young prospects while trading and letting go some of the club's marquee names in the process. We must realize that prospects are just as much of a risk as an over-hyped, over-paid shortstop. Otherwise, we would have a super league if all prospect predictions came to fruition.

The potential cup of Red Bull the Red Sox need.
(espn.com)

So in analyzing Buchholz's hype in correlation to his actual MLB performance, this would be a great opportunity for the Sox to sell high and acquire a mainstay in their offensive attack. It isn't a secret that our offense was going to be a concern entering this year. I mean why do you think John Henry threw such a fit when he couldn't sign Teixeira in Texas this past offseason? We have so much pitching in the minors that we have the liberty to have some of them pursue playing shortstop. The Red Sox have the luxury of having both a rich farm system and the financial resources to not only compete, but to make some mistakes and have them not stunt the franchise (See: Renteria, Lugo, possibly Drew). As Herm Edwards would agree to, they are equipped to be able to play to win in every game and every season. And we still have Michael Bowden, right? I'm not saying that Buchholz will never mature into a fine pitcher, but the truth is that we're at a stage that we really don't know if his stuff will materialize. The no-hitter is the only performance that makes us as fans hold on to what he can be potentially. But I believe that the no-no against the O's was the worst thing that happened to him (minus the Penthouse Pet girlfriend or the Deal or No Deal model fiancée....on second thought....). He has now heightened expectations so high in a city that speculates every player down to their ingrown toenail. In that 4 inning performance against Texas this past Wednesday, I saw that same deer in the headlights look that consumed his face during last year's mess of a season. Even after meetings with a sports psychologist and some success in the minors, I don't know if that face will ever go away if he still plays in a city like Boston. The major point is if your gonna get something, you have to give up something in return, and I believe we have enough young talent to roll the dice here. Remember who we had to give up in the Beckett deal? The 21 year old shortstop Hanley Ramirez, whose maturity was questioned while in the Boston farm system, has developed into one of the most complete players in the game (Never know with prospects, case and point.). But in return, we received a dynamite postseason pitcher and a future World Series MVP in return, establishing a core for our triumphant 2007 season, and possibly for 2008 if injuries didn't come into play. How does getting Hanley back sound? Not only would we get a solid, proven 5-tool offensive player, but we can fill the gap at shortstop that has been vacated and re-vacated as often as a room in a swank Hollywood brothel. Or how about a Victor Martinez, a catcher who can also provide some switch-hitting power and a body at first base, while adding some spunk to a clubhouse which is considered drab at best. Anything beats watching Varitek go through vertigo at the plate (Don't get me started with 'Tek! EERRRRRRGH!.....O.K. coming down now......). Besides, I hope we are over the Larry Andersen/Jeff Bagwell trade by now. So I really hope Theo and his brain trust know what they're doing. After all, Lars Anderson is hitting .263 with a .396 slugging percentage in Double A Portland right now.