Tuesday, March 30, 2010

Rising In The East

The Yawkey yells are getting more audible.
(CEB II)

It's almost here, folks! Let's just say Easter won't be the holiday I will be looking forward to most on April 4th. Opening Day is around the corner, but my spirit has been wandering Landsdowne and Yawkey waiting to get into the gates for a while. Sure beats watching every Celtics game and hoping K.G. doesn't snap in half on the court every game, or this biblical flood that has been formulating in Mass. the past 3 days. The regular season will also be a great diversion from the oozing cheesiness that the ESPN commercial starring Clay Buchholz singing 'Sweet Caroline' exudes, or at least I hope it does. Now, with 'The Final Countdown' blaring in my room, I grant you access to my crystal ball and its vision of what's gonna go down in the AL East. The shout of, 'PLAY BALL!' can't come quick enough.

Shawn Marcum
(sport.yahoo.com)

Toronto Blue Jays - Where's The New Doc In Town?
And you thought all the crickets were at Fort Myers this spring. With the departure of the Jays' all-time franchise player this offseason (Hint: not Alex Rios), the fact that Jays camp has been quiet is as much of an understatement as the fact that this will be a rebuilding year for the franchise. It is not going to be easy replacing Halladay, especially when the Opening Day starter this year (Shawn Marcum) hasn't pitched a game in the major league level since 2008 due to Tommy John surgery. Lefties Ricky Romero and the mess of consonants that is Marc Rzepczynski had showed flashes of brilliance in '09, but I'm not sure if they will translate in top-of-the-rotation talent, especially in a super-division known as the AL East. On top of that, the main prospects in the 'Doc Deal' (pitcher Kyle Drabek, catcher Travis D'Arnaud and well-traveled 1st base prospect Brett Wallace) are at least a year away from making an impact on the big club, putting the verdict on Anthopolous Era on hold for now. We mustn't forget however, that Toronto already has some quality talent in their major league ranks right now. Adam Lind proved that with a bulk of playing time, he could prove to be a vital cog for the Blue Bird attack, and young slugger Travis Snider may not be far behind. And even though I don't think he will come anywhere close to the 36 homers he hit in '09, Aaron Hill has proved to be one of the most solid all-around second basemen in the game in a division with Cano and Pedroia. However along with all the question marks of where their staff and bullpen stack up amongst their divisional foes, the $126-million franchise anchor known as Vernon Wells will hinder anything the organization will try to do over the next few years, while trying his best to get his picture on Webster's under the word, 'underachiever'. Pack your bags, Baltimore, somebody else is moving in the cellar. Maybe next year, Toronto......or next half-decade.

Prediction: 69-93 (5th)
Key Player To Step Up: Shawn Marcum (or anybody from that starting rotation)

Matt Wieters
(sports.yahoo.com)

Baltimore Orioles - Can A Bird Be A Dark Horse?
Are we there yet, are we there yet, are we there yet? It's the repeated question asked by Oriole fans who have suffered from 12 consecutive years of futility. Fortunately for those in Charm City, they may be getting closer to the end of the tunnel. Even in another lackluster campaign in '09, the city of Baltimore saw signs of a black and orange renaissance. They saw a 5-tool player thrive in Adam Jones, who could be covering ground in center for years, the emergence of Nolan Reimold and a little taste of possibly the next franchise player in switch-hitting catcher Matt Wieters. Along with veterans like Nick Markakis and Brian Roberts, Baltimore has proven that they could be a solid run-producing team that could only get better with a more consistent everyday lineup. That could potentially be provided with Garrett Atkins, who has a lot to prove after completely falling of Pikes Peak in Colorado last year, along with Miguel Tejada who will bring a steady bat at third, while being a place-warmer for third base prospect Josh Bell. However, if the Orioles are ultimately going to rule the East again, they have to reconstruct a pitching staff that has basically extended batting practice sessions into game time over the past decade plus. With that in mind, I believe makes the arrival of lefty Brian Matusz (#5 prospect in MLB) arguably more important for Baltimore than that of Wieters. He, along with Brad Bergesen, could possibly revamp a staff that has been in need of a fresh renovation, and the acquisition of left-handed closer Mike Gonzalez puts an end to the questions of who is the stopper for the back of this 'pen, at least for now. The bigger deal is whether they have a bridge leading up to Gonzalez, or just a launching pad moat. Also, having your lineup catalyst (Brian Roberts) mentioned with the word 'epidural' is never a good thing, especially for a player who bases his game on speed. Ultimately, Baltimore still lacks the depth for a divisional takeover, but GM Andy MacPhail and crew are righting the ship right in front of our eyes. Hey, it's not the cellar, and you are almost there O's fans, almost.

Prediction: 73-89 (4th)
Key Player To Step Up: Matt Wieters

Carl Crawford
(sports.yahoo.com)

Tampa Bay Rays - Will Carlos, Carl And Cowbells Bring Contention?
Even if you are a Red Sox fan that has been annoyed by them in the past couple years (add me to the mix), you have to admit that the Rays have collected the most intriguing set of ballplayers in the land. With all this funny talk about floating divisional alignment, the Rays have proven that even a team with small pockets can be a threat in a room with two giants who seemingly print out money. With a perennial MVP candidate in Longoria, emerging talents like Zobrist and by acquiring an undisputed closer in Rafael Soriano this offseason, there is not enough Nyquil in the world to knock me out with the nightmares that this team will create in my slumber. With all of that said, the clock is ticking on the Rays. The bottom line is that there is more importance attached to the Rays' season than to any other team in the bigs, because who knows if either franchise player Carl Crawford or lineup centerpiece Carlos Peña will last till August wearing a Tampa uni. The only way to assure their stay into the dog days of summer is if the Rays come in like a lion, all while staying in the hunt to eliminate either Boston or New York from a coveted playoff spot. The key for them is a couple things. If the young guns of the staff (David Price, Jeff Niemann, Wade Davis) can rise a couple of levels on their virtually limitless upside, they could not only help out Shields and Garza, but possibly create a staff that will be better than their AL East rivals. Also, the Rays are going have to figure out who the real B.J. Upton is going to be, whether it is going to be the phenom that emerged onto the scene in 2007, or the underachiever that befuddled fans and experts in 2009, while dropping to 9th in the order. I'm also wondering whether the complications of J.P. Howell's sleepy shoulder will linger and play an antagonistic role in the Rays' 'pen throughout the season. If healthy, locked and loaded, the Rays are going to be sharks amongst teams in the AL. However, of the Big 3 in the AL East, the Rays have the most uncertainties. In order to have a season of success, they have to have exceptional seasons from at least 2 if not all 3 of their crew of young starters, an offensive recovery from Upton and Burrell, and a follow-up from Zobrist. My intuition tells me that all of that will not happen, with the Rays ultimately following short and possibility of either Crawford, Peña or even Soriano wearing a different uniform, all for the the sake of the Rays' to stay afloat in future years in a division in which every week is shark week.

Prediction: 89-73 (3rd)
Key Player To Step Up: David Price


John Lackey
(sports.yahoo.com)

Boston Red Sox - Run Prevention Is The Biggest Hit
For a team historically known for its prolific sluggers, you wouldn't know it by witnessing this team's offseason and how they got on the defensive. Out is the bat of Pedro Cerr...err...Jason Bay, and in comes the leather protection of Mike Cameron and Adrian Beltre, not to mention an addition of another ace, which along with Lester and Beckett create the best trio this side of The Three Tenors. In the category of run prevention, the Red Sox are top of the pops. In fact, with all the changes, the Sox will save 87 runs according to Baseball Info Solutions. The main questions stem from the lineup and whether it has enough firepower to battle in an arduous 162-game season. The top four (Ellsbury, Pedroia, V-Mart and Youk) should get on base an let the runs flow, but there is an unknown frontier when you venture beyond. Will Papi avoid a 2-month vacation and provide consistency in a power slot in the lineup? Will Fenway actually help Adrian Beltre's offensive numbers? Can we trust Scutaro's career year numbers that were achieved at age 33? While I still think that we need that Fear of God bat, the rest of the lineup proves to be more balanced than in year's past. Let's face it, Papi will not be what he was in the last decade, but it's feasible to predict that he can be a contributor, especially with the second half he pulled off. If not, they're no worries as the possibilities of getting a new bat via the trade market are wide open. Besides, with the Monster perched in left, it's not a pipe dream for Beltre and Cameron to hit a combined 50 homers, not to mention an 8-9 of Cameron and Scutaro provokes much more fear in the tail end of a lineup than 'Tek and Lugo. It took a some time and a recently-dull Boston sports scene, but I have actually talked myself into this team being competitive. They just won't win the division. However, I think a Wild Card berth is highly feasible, and with 'The Three Tenors' of baseball headlining this rotation, the World Series title may be shipping up to Boston come October....or November.

Prediction: 94-68 (2nd, AL WILD CARD)
Key Player To Step Up: Adrian Beltre

Curtis Granderson
(sports.yahoo.com)

New York Yankees - On The Beat Of Repeat
Fresh from a trip through the Canyon of Heroes, the Yanks are back to work on another pinstriped dynasty (Now praying for every force of the world to go against it), and they have retooled into what some experts say could be a better team. This offseason proved that even the power-stocked Yankees weren't immune to the defense craze that has been spreading like that John Wall arm-dance. The Evil Empire traded for Detroit OF Curtis Granderson, who is not only predicted to cover an acre of ground in whatever outfield position he will occupy, but with that short porch in right, could potentially reach Ruthian totals in homers. I mean, he has averaged 25 homers in the last 3 years, including slugging 30 in '09 while playing most of his games in spacious Comerica Park. Still, I wonder if Granderson is really an upgrade over Johnny Damon, who definitely is lacking defensively at the tender age of 36, but would would constantly extend an at-bat to sunrise before the big mashers finished off the fatigued hurlers. Then there is the Part Deux class, headed by Javier Vazquez, who perhaps came from his best season at age 33 with the Braves (15-10, 2.87 ERA, 238 Ks in 219 1/3 IP). But I question whether his second stint in the Bronx will be better than his shaky 1st, considering the AL East has gotten way better since his departure after the '04 season. Then there is Nick Johnson, who could be a better alternative at the top of the order to tag-team with Jeter over Granderson for his magnetic pull towards the bases (.402 career OBP), but still wonder whether he can stay off the ace bandages for a whole season. But even with all of the questions regarding their new acquisitions, the fact that the Yanks have the dilemma of having either Phil Hughes or Joba Chamberlain as the set-up man shows that the Yankees will do more than tread water in 2010. Added with an explosive lineup, deep pitching and with all those heavy postseason monkeys off their backs, the Yankees will be able to cover up any flaw before it can become their kryptonite. Unless the big injury forces down either A-Rod, Teixeira or Sabathia (maybe all three!), along with Mariano Rivera finally short-circuiting, I unfortunately believe that the Yanks will successfully defend their AL East title. But with the badge of champions on them and with a more competitive American League emerging, Title #28 won't exactly be a stroll around the bases.

Prediction: 99-63 (1st AL EAST)
Key Player To Step Up: Javier Vazquez

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